President Tayyip Erdogan rallied supporters with a strong blend of religious conservatism and nationalism to extend his leadership into a third decade on Sunday.
Since he took a commanding lead in the first round on May 14, Erdogan’s momentum has only risen, and many predict him to win Sunday’s runoff.
Victory would solidify the reign of a man who has reshaped Turkey, remaking the secular state created 100 years ago to match his devout vision and consolidating power in what detractors call a march to dictatorship.
Erdogan has transformed Turkey into a regional force and distanced NATO from its Western allies.
His 20-year rule, including this election campaign, has polarized the nation, critics say. He said his opponents were “poisoning political discourse” before Sunday’s vote.
In an interview with CNN Turk on Thursday, he said, “We will continue to embrace our nation, which is a way of thinking that comes from our culture. “If we win on May 28, with God’s permission, all 85 million people will win.”
The opposition sees the referendum as its greatest chance to remove Erdogan and reverse many of his far-reaching reforms to Turkey since the modern Turkish state was formed 100 years ago.
However, it has shown his resilience, surprising opponents who anticipated him to fall victim to a cost-of-living problem and criticism of the state’s reaction to February’s earthquakes, which killed over 50,000 people.
Critics and earthquake survivors blamed the government’s delayed reaction and inadequate construction code enforcement for deaths.
However, his Islamist-rooted AK Party won 10 of the 11 earthquake-stricken regions, giving it and its allies a legislative majority on May 14.
Erdogan calls his opponents “pro-LGBT” on the campaign trail to rouse conservatives.
He also used Kurdish support for Kilicdaroglu to accuse him of supporting terrorism and the militant Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which Kilicdaroglu branded defamatory.
Erdogan regularly used a doctored film to accuse Kilicdaroglu of connections to the PKK, which has killed over 40,000 people.
Religious and national pride
Nicholas Danforth, Turkey historian and non-resident fellow at think tank ELIAMEP, said Erdogan has merged religion and national pride, providing people an aggressive anti-elitism at home and abroad.
“People know him and his vision for the country, and it seems a lot of them approve,” he added.
“However, having the wind in his sails doesn’t guarantee smooth sailing. He claimed the economy would become worse, the opposition won’t go away, and many international leaders don’t like or trust him anymore.
Critics believe additional five years of his leadership risks greater harm to a democracy they claim has been eroded as he gathered authority around an executive presidency, muzzled opposition, imprisoned critics and opponents, and took control of the media, courts, and economy.
Erdogan claims to support democracy and oppose military meddling in Turkish politics after surviving a 2016 military coup that murdered 250 people.
His campaign focused on economic gains and avoided the cost-of-living crisis with help from the Turkish media.
Turkey launched its first electric automobile and inaugurated its first amphibious assault ship, built in Istanbul to deploy Turkish-made drones, in the month before the vote.
Erdogan also opened Turkey’s first nuclear power facility and switched on its first Black Sea natural gas delivery, offering homeowners free supplies.
In his first decade in power, Erdogan’s economy boomed with new roads, hospitals, schools, and growing living standards.
As the government slashed interest rates in the face of rising inflation, it became a political issue. In late 2021, the growth-boosting program destroyed the currency and raised inflation.
Istanbul mayor
Erdogan, a poor Istanbul native who attended Islamic vocational school, became Istanbul mayor in 1994 after serving as a local party youth chapter head.
He was imprisoned in 1999 for a 1997 poem equating mosques to barracks, minarets to bayonets, and the devout to an army.
In 2003, he became prime minister as AK Party leader.
His government calmed Turkey’s military, which had overthrown four governments since 1960, and initiated discussions to join the EU in 2005, which ultimately stalled.
Western allies first regarded Erdogan’s Turkey as a lively combination of Islam and democracy that might inspire Middle Eastern republics striving to overcome tyranny and stagnation.
His ambitions divided Turks and scared international partners. Dedicated followers regarded it as a deserved reward for a leader who championed the devout working classes and put Islamic beliefs at the center of public life in a secular nation.
It was criticized as authoritarianism.
After the 2016 coup attempt, police arrested around 77,000 individuals awaiting trial. Turkey jailed the most journalists, according to rights groups.
Erdogan defended the purge by citing dangers from coup sympathizers, Islamic State, and the PKK.
At home, a large new presidential palace complex on the edge of Ankara became a conspicuous emblem of his new powers, while overseas, Turkey became increasingly aggressive, engaging in Syria, Iraq, and Libya and often using Turkish-made military drones with decisive force.
